Giving Reason to Believe The Key for Thompson

I got together recently with an old Teacher of mine for the first time in 30 years. He had been unique in many ways, among them that, amid the turbulence of Vietnam war protests and the Nixon administration, he was one of the few younger Teachers in my high school who never hinted at his ideological leanings.

When our conversation turned briefly to politics, he told me he had voted for Mayor Bloomberg in 2005, "but I don't think I can do it again. I thought what he did was very high-handed."

He was speaking, of course, of Mr. Bloomberg's maneuvering to gain the right to seek a third term, first by obtaining the blessings of the Three Men in a Dining Room—the publishers of the city's daily papers—and then by persuading a majority of the City Council to pay no attention to the Term Limits Law that had been passed and later reaffirmed in voter referendums.

Helps Explain Poll Worries

I share his feeling, and I would guess there are an awful lot of other city residents who do as well. It is one of the reasons why the Mayor's lead in public opinion polls is shrinking— down to 10 points in the most-recent one—despite his first campaign assault on the airwaves and the failure of challenger Bill Thompson to establish himself to this point as a credible alternative.

ONE STUMBLES, THE OTHER HASN'T HIT STRIDE: While several recent developments that embarrassed Mayor Bloomberg threaten his already-shrinking lead in the polls, City Comptroller Bill Thompson hasn't really capitalized in his stutter-step campaign to date. One union leader who is backing him insists he has a genuine chance of posting an upset in November, saying of Mr. Bloomberg, 'The people that no one seems to want to talk to are getting sick of him.'

My Teacher didn't say he was ready to vote for the City Comptroller, however. And so to a large degree, however many more tens of millions Mr. Bloomberg plans to spend, the race may ultimately hinge on whether Mr. Thompson can make the case for himself and give voters the sense that if they indulge their anger at the Mayor's disregard for the democratic process in the voting booths, he will not make them regret it.

One official whose union is leaning toward backing the Comptroller but not ready to commit put it this way: "If there was a viable alternative other than Billy Thompson, Bloomberg would be toast."

The Comptroller did not get off to an auspicious start in trying to convince voters that he is that alternative. His first major shots at Mr. Bloomberg came on the public schools, with back-to-back press conferences three weeks ago in which he accused the Department of Education of bending the rules to goose its high school graduation rates and creating conditions that could permit cheating on statewide exams in the lower grades.

But while Mr. Thompson labeled the DOE "the Enron of American education," his audits found no scandal, just some less-thanstellar administration. The closest thing to a real indictment of DOE that week came from its own Special Commissioner of Investigation, who found that the school system had been hornswoggled on $1.9 million worth of contracts by a firm using a bid-rigging scheme that crumpled under actual scrutiny. It might as well have served as the lead exhibit for why the renewed mayoral school control legislation imposed significant new oversight for the DOE contracting process.

In essence, Mr. Thompson's audits had the potential to be a ground-ball through the infield, but he swung for the fences and hit a pop-up.

Slammed Into the Board

For his trouble, he also took a whipping from Mr. Bloomberg's chief campaign spokesman, Howard Wolfson, who—in what figures to be a recurring theme as the campaign wears on—countered by wrapping Mr. Thompson's tenure as the President of the old Board of Education around his neck. It may not matter that the board, despite its policy-making power, had less influence on the system than Rudy Giuliani and whichever Chancellor he was belittling at the moment, because any defense Mr. Thompson offered would simply serve as a reminder that the school system didn't work as well then as it does now.

Some people who take politics seriously regard Mr. Thompson as just another guy from the Brooklyn machine—smarter and less crude than most, but not an inspirational leader, either. While both Ed Koch and Rudy Giuliani spent parts of their youth in the borough, the last Mayor who came out of its political environment was another City Comptroller, Abe Beame, who shares those qualities. And since no one has ever waxed nostalgic for the days when he ran New York, Mr. Thompson needs to be able to transcend any perception that a valid comparison exists between them.

Conventional wisdom has it that he's got perhaps 50 days to put himself forth as someone capable of leading the city, however different his vision of it may be from the incumbent's. By the beginning of October, unless polls show him with more than an upset chance of winning, unions such as the United Federation of Teachers are unlikely to back him at the risk of antagonizing an incumbent they expect to be dealing with for another four years. And if the Mayor simply breaks even on labor endorsements, he's taken away one of the Comptroller's best hopes of prevailing.

On the other hand, beyond Mr. Bloomberg's disappointing recent poll numbers, there have been a few cracks appearing lately in the façade of model government that is his rationale for the third term.

One came, in fact, from one of his more- prominent labor supporters to this point, when the head of the local District Council of Carpenters, Michael Forde, was indicted last week, continuing a long, dishonorable tradition of that union's leaders being linked to criminal activity engineered either by the Gambino or the Genovese Crime Families. It left Mr. Bloomberg reminding us that Mr. Forde hasn't been convicted of anything yet and besides, the endorsement came from his rank and file, but it was another embarrassment in a week that had one directly traceable to his administration: the revelation that it had granted $1.5 million in city money to two politically connected Orthodox Jewish groups outside the normal process for such allocations.

Alibi Witness Doesn't Stand Up

And when the Councilman designated as the administration's alibi witness stated that he'd never seen those grants before in his life, it was another sign that the Bloomberg machine is showing the effects of wear and tear.

On the same day that story appeared, the Mayor's image took a separate hiding from New York Times columnist Clyde Haberman. A day earlier, Plaxico Burress had been indicted in connection with his mishandling of a gun in a nightclub, a case Mr. Bloomberg had made such a cause celebre that the former Giant star's lawyer called his client the victim of a political prosecution.

As Mr. Haberman noted, the Mayor's warnings about the potential harm Mr. Burress could have done had someone other than himself been accidentally shot stood in wondrous contrast to his attitude toward Vito Fossella after the then-Congressman got pulled over for driving drunk last year. Not only did Mr. Bloomberg keep any outrage he was feeling to himself about the lives Mr. Fossella had potentially endangered, he later attended a tribute to this gem of moral values and spoke warmly of the fallen Congressman. As Mr. Haberman wryly observed, the disparity in reaction could probably be explained by Mr. Burress not having the kind of political party ties the Mayor has been cultivating.

'Let Things Happen to Mayor'

And as one union official who spoke conditioned on anonymity put it, a worsening economy and rising unemployment further undercut Mr. Bloomberg's claims that he is the only candidate who can right the city's ship. Until that changes, he argued, "What Thompson has to do is avoid any real gaffes, and just let things keep happening with Bloomberg."

Nobody disputes that the schools are better than they were before the Mayor took office; what is an open question is whether they are as good as they could be, given the infusion of money and attention they have received over the past 7½ years. The city is on track for another record low in murders, but in some minority communities which figure to be prime Thompson country, there are too many shocking killings to create a sense that a golden era is upon us.

Asked about the perception of a safer city, Faye Moore, the president of Social Service Employees Union Local 371 of District Council 37, replied, "Maybe in your world. Even in the gentrified neighborhood [Fort Greene] where I live, there is an increase in certain types of crimes that hasn't been reported in the media."

The Deutsche Bank Bungles

There have also been fissures involving parts of city government that typically operate under the radar of the average citizen. Mr. Bloomberg's own Department of Investigation issued a damning report of the critical management failures at both the Buildings and Fire Departments that led to two firefighters being killed at the Deutsche Bank blaze two years ago, while also making clear that other city officials had ignored DOI's warnings about the contractors being used on that demolition project.

Then an Aug. 4 story in the Times put a spear through the heart of the Bloomberg campaign ad that begins, "He's not a politician."

The piece reported that the Bloomberg administration had broken government contracting rules in funneling $1.5 million in city funds to Agudath Israel of America Community Services and Ohel Children's Home and Family Services, two prominent Orthodox Jewish social service groups. While that money is supposed to be allocated based on the recommendation of either a City Council Member or a Borough President, the administration's listed requester, Councilman Simcha Felder of Brooklyn, denied he had asked for the money.

Perhaps the administration assumed that, since it had given $6 million out of $20 million it parceled out to all Council Members in discretionary funds over that seven-year period to Mr. Felder, he wouldn't disown donations that he hadn't sought. When he did, mayoral spokesman Marc La- Vorgna told The Times, "We disagree with the Councilman's recollection."

Who Benefits By Denying?

The problem for the Mayor is, it's not clear how Mr. Felder benefits by denying his involvement, and it seemed clear from other remarks he made to The Times that he was concerned about the impact on his own political future of putting the Mayor on the spot.

Even the New York Post editorial page acknowledged how bad this looked, although in a piece headlined "Mike's Pork Problem," it suggested that incompetence or sloppy recordkeeping was a more likely explanation than actual law-breaking by the Mayor's aides.

After all, we know from the term limits battle that Mr. Bloomberg doesn't break the rules; he finds cooperative legislators to amend them for his benefit.

Only this time, Mr. Felder didn't cooperate when confronted. And the impression left was that maybe the Mayor regards rules as mere suggestions, to be disregarded when they stand in the way of an objective. And there are an awful lot of votes to be harvested from having a good relationship with the Orthodox Jewish community.

Curiously, Thompson Holds Fire

Mr. Thompson did not, however, take advantage of the Times piece to merely calling for an administration audit of the transactions to be turned over to him. That raised questions about why his campaign wasn't swift to capitalize on openings, or whether he was holding his fire because he is potentially vulnerable to charges regarding the use of placement agents by investment firms seeking city pension fund business to a greater degree than has so far come to light.

Ms. Moore, whose local endorsed Mr. Thompson without fanfare in the latest issue of its newspaper, said there were plenty of reasons to go against the incumbent that have not attracted much media attention. She also noted that the Comptroller had been speaking out against no-bid DOE contracts —notably the one involving Snapple vending machines in the schools—long before the campaign began.

"This local has had a very difficult time—in the last two years in particular— with this administration," she said, citing cuts in agency programs, layoffs of provisionals, and looming layoffs of permanent civil servants that could take effect early this fall. She said disaffection has been growing in the larger minority community because of "the affordable-housing crisis, the waits in job centers" and other cutbacks affecting city social programs. "A number of charter schools are being inserted into public schools where they aren't wanted."

'Thompson Listens'

She continued regarding the Mayor,

The people that no one seems to want to talk to are getting sick of him." In contrast, she said of Mr. Thompson,

When you talk to him, he listens, and he remembers what you said."

Asked what she thought he needed to be doing to close the gap in the polls, Ms. Moore said, "I think he should work on his visibility. I like this one-issue-a-week thing," with housing last week's topic.

Beyond that, she said of Mr. Thompson, "I think he has to work on his base. They're there—they're just waiting to be galvanized."

Yet the toughest sell, but the one the Comptroller probably needs if he has any shot of tipping the dynamic in his favor, is to convince those outside the minority community that not only does he have a real shot of winning but he's capable of doing a good job if elected.

Bypassing a referendum to strongarm himself into position to get a third term and then spending as only Mr. Bloomberg can have created a queasy feeling about the Mayor not unlike what many Yankee fans feel when rooting for Alex Rodriguez. The fact that A-Rod cheated doesn't mean they would vote, given the chance, to replace him with Cody Ransom. But someone with skills somewhat less imposing but good enough to inspire confidence—think Derek Jeter— might get many of them to vote their consciences and send a message.

It's a matter of Mr. Thompson beginning to prove he can play at that level.