Politics of TWU Impasse

Perhaps the most-interesting aspect of the decision by Transport Workers Union Local 100 and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority to seek arbitration of the union's contract was that it was announced more than a week before the old pact expires at 12:01 a.m. Jan. 16.

It's not that the timing removed the drama that is normally associated with a transit contract deadline: it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that there wouldn't be a strike threat in the air this time around. But the fact that the two sides declared an impasse without using the final 10 days to at least narrow the differences between them is telling.

It suggests that political considerations were at least as important as dollars and cents issues. You can always negotiate when it comes to money, and matters of trade-union principle—which complicated the talks in 2005 when the MTA was seeking to have new workers accept an inferior pension plan—did not appear to be involved this time.

The two major obstacles in this case appear to be related issues: the unresolved MTA budget and public opinion.

The two sides were reportedly close to a deal three months ago that would have provided three 4-percent increases. Mayor Bloomberg was said to have exercised veto power over that accord. While there are some police unions working under long-term contracts which got the same hikes for a roughly corresponding period, his deals with civilian-employee unions have contained only two 4-percent raises; his bargaining stance on a third-year raise is that the worsening city financial condition has to be a factor in considering what if any hike can be afforded.

Sentiment against such a contract has only intensified since then. Given the harsh service cuts and proposed fare hikes put forth by the MTA recently, it would be skewered by editorial writers and members of the riding public if it looked to voluntarily grant Local 100 that kind of deal.

On the other side of the table, Local 100 President Roger Toussaint faces a re-election battle in five months. His support slipped badly when he gained a third term in 2006, winning with just 45 percent of the vote in a five-man race, and that was a consequence of members' dissatisfaction with the contract he negotiated following the transit strike—which was narrowly rejected—and the penalties they suffered for violating the Taylor Law with that walkout. He couldn't afford to settle for less than city workers have received.

An arbitration proceeding is likely to leave the contract terms unresolved by the time his members vote. But in the interim, the MTA may wind up with a significant infusion of cash that eliminates the need for the drastic actions it has proposed, courtesy of President elect Obama's stimulus package. U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer has estimated that the MTA could receive as much as $4 billion in Federal aid from that package. If that is the case, it would open the door to resuming negotiations and reaching a deal close to the one the Mayor reportedly derailed.

Stimulus or no, the union is likely to fare decently in arbitration. Other public-employee union settlements for the corresponding period have been reasonable, including state contracts, where wage hikes of 3 and 4 percent for the two-year period between 2009 and 2011 were supplemented by additional compensation for employees in the metropolitan area from longevity increases and significantly boosted location differentials.

And so it clearly makes sense for Mr. Toussaint to take the step into arbitration at this point. But it also raises further doubts about his rejecting that option when the MTA offered it in late 2005, in favor of a strike.

The rationale he gave then was that arbitration would take the decision out of his members' hands. A concern expressed privately by top union officials at the time was that if the union agreed to arbitration, it would forever relieve the MTA of the urgency to settle contracts on time.

Whatever validity those arguments had then applies equally now. The one change is that the consequences of the strike appear to have made Mr. Toussaint less anxious to charge the cannons. That isn't a bad thing.