City Cites FBI Crime Nos. To Bolster Bragging Rights; But Improvement is Slowing
By TOMMY HALLISSEY
During the last 14 years in The Bronx, the murder rate has dropped nearly 75 percent. Gone are the days of more than 250 homicides a year, but the crime decline, which removed the borough's "Bronx is Burning" image, has slowed noticeably: the seven major crimes fell just 3.16 percent in 2007 in the borough; and the murder rate was nearly static, according to CompStat figures.

RAYMOND W. KELLY: Lauds cops' professionalism.

While Mayor Bloomberg and Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly touted a historic drop in city murders to 496 last year, which they claimed drove a national decline in homicides in recently released FBI statistics, numbers from the Bronx and a long-term statistical comparison of city data show that crime has plummeted in the last decade, but the decrease is beginning to bottom out.

Still Falling, But Not As Fast

Overall crime in New York City has dropped close to 40 percent in the last 10 years, but FBI statistics show a drop of just 2.7 percent last year — the smallest improvement over the decade.

Mr. Bloomberg, though, accentuated the drop in homicides in the city. "Without the 17-percent decline in murders in New York City, murder nationwide would have been flat, not down," he said. "Our success is due to the innovative programs and policies we have put in place, such as our sustained campaign to rid our streets of illegal guns, and to the extraordinary dedication of the brave men and women of the NYPD. We are grateful for their efforts, and proud that they continue to make New York City a national leader in public safety."

Despite prominent warnings from the FBI on comparing data from different cities, the city touted its figures against those of the nine next-largest cities.

A warning attached to the FBI data states, "These rough rankings provide no insight into the numerous variables that mold crime in a particular town, city, county, state, or region. Consequently, they lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting communities and their residents."

Nevertheless, the NYPD analysis found in 2007 the total crime index in the city was 2,432.3 crimes per 100,000 people, which ranked 230th lowest out of 245 cities with a population of 100,000 or more. It put the Big Apple between Santa Clarita, Calif. and Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. Out of the nation's 10 largest cities, New York City had the lowest Index Crime rate covering the seven major crimes, including murder, rape and burglary. Looking at the nation's 25 largest cities, New York ranked safest, scoring the lowest.

Mr. Bloomberg and Mr. Kelly said New York was the safest big city in America last year. "The scale of crime prevention by the men and women of the NYPD was such that it drove down the national murder rate last year," said Commissioner Kelly. "It coincided with continued advances in crime-fighting, counter terrorism and quality of life enforcement made possible by the professionalism of our police officers."

The city dug a bit deeper into the numbers to take credit for other national drops in crime. The city's decrease of 1,724 robberies in 2007 accounted for 76 percent of the total national decline of 2,278, the NYPD noted. Its hundred fewer murders in the city in 2007 accounted for all but one of the total drop nationally. Major felony crime in New York City fell 2.7 percent last year, which was the 16th consecutive year crime has declined.