Razzle Dazzle Super-Conclusive It Wasn't

Razzle Dazzle
Super-Conclusive It Wasn't


Super Tuesday gave some definition to the battle for the Republican nomination for President while leaving the Democratic contest a mystery that still could be decided by either the party's establishment and its foot-soldiers on behalf of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama's ability to generate both money and enthusiasm from his supporters.

"You want this on the record?" Working Families Party Executive Director Dan Cantor said Feb. 7 after being asked where he thought the Democratic race was going. This is a matter of more than sporting interest for the WFP, which has already stated its intention to back whomever the Dems ultimately choose.

Rather than sound like an "idiot pundit by saying the first thing that pops into my head," Mr. Cantor asked for a few minutes to think about his answer. When we went to press four days later, he was apparently still cogitating.

'Hillary's the Blue-Collar Candidate'

Mickey Carroll, whose formal political education began in some of New Jersey's murkier precincts and continued through stints at the Herald Tribune, New York Times and New York Newsday before he became polling director for Quinnipiac University, said some trends had emerged on the Democratic side.

FAMILY SQUABBLE: Barack Obama (left) and Hillary Clinton must be careful not to let their battle for the Democratic nod for President become so acrimonious that it damages the chances of the eventual nominee, State AFL-CIO President Denis Hughes says. Whatever misgivings some Republican commentators have about John McCain, GOP voters will eventually rally behind him, Mr. Hughes said, adding, 'Democrats, it's a lot harder to get them to walk in the same direction.'

"Hillary Clinton is the candidate of the blue-collar Democrats - the people who didn't go to college," he said the morning after the New York Senator won a surprisingly big victory in California while also rolling up comfortable margins in New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey.

Her rival Senator from Illinois - who besides holding serve in his home state had narrowly prevailed in a Missouri contest that tends to be a reliable indicator of national strength and won a batch of smaller states as well, including Connecticut - ''is the candidate of the upper class and the faculty: the people with advanced degrees," Mr. Carroll continued.

This analysis, which was supported by exit polls from Tuesday's 22-state free-for-all, seemed somewhat counterintuitive, since Ms. Clinton is so much a part of her party's establishment and Mr. Obama is the challenger who relies more on his power to inspire than his record in office. When polls completed a day before Super Tuesday showed him with a small lead in California, it seemed possible his momentum was growing so quickly that a victory or close defeat in New York might also be within reach, which would have gravely wounded Ms. Clinton's hopes of winning the nomination.

But, no doubt aided by union and party volunteers in both states - exit polls showed her winning the union vote 51 to 44 percent nationally - she wound up winning California by 10 points and New York by 17.

"There seemed to be a lot of enthusiasm for her," said State AFL-CIO President Denis Hughes, who while deferring to his national union on presidential endorsements had nonetheless pushed through a resolution designating Ms. Clinton the "favorite daughter" of the New York labor federation.

Despite those victories in two of the three biggest states, Mr. Hughes said, "I still have a feeling the race has a ways to go." Mr. Carroll was even more definitive on that point, saying, "We're gonna go on and on and on."

'Democrats' Favorite Republican'

Complicating matters for the two Democratic hopefuls is Mr. McCain's emergence as the near-certain nominee after overwhelming victories in both New York and California and Mitt Romney's poor showing that led him to drop out, leaving Mike Huckabee as the sole challenger.

The Arizona Senator, notwithstanding his advocacy for a long-term American presence in Iraq and making the Bush tax cuts permanent, is what Mr. Carroll calls "the Democrats' favorite Republican." His positions on matters such as campaign finance reform, immigration and the treatment of enemy prisoners make him appealing to independents and some Democrats even while diehard GOP commentators look to excommunicate him for those stances.

"He's showed that he can reach across," Mr. Carroll remarked. "I'm not sure he can win - it's supposed to be a Democratic year - but he's got a real chance."

Mr. Hughes was more emphatic - and worried - on that score, discounting the notion that doubts among conservatives could cost Mr. McCain some traditionally Republican states and his strength in states like New York and California might simply turn into close losses in November.

"If he's the nominee," the State AFL-CIO leader said, "he will carry the Republican states like any other nominee. But some of the blue states will be in play where they wouldn't be with another [GOP] nominee. Democrats, it's a lot harder to get them to walk in the same direction."

Ms. Clinton did not run as strongly among black voters on Super Tuesday as might have been expected, both here - particularly with District Council 37 mobilizing on her behalf - and nationally. Mr. Carroll did not believe that was the result of a backlash against her because of numerous remarks by high-level supporters - including her husband, Bill - that were perceived as either demeaning Mr. Obama's credentials or trying to couch the contest in racial terms. Rather, he saw it as a case of black voters - as is the case with all ethnic groups - rallying behind one of their own who was both impressive and appeared to have a genuine chance of winning. (Mr. Clinton had used a dubious means of downplaying Senator Obama's chances following his rousing victory in the South Carolina primary last month by brushing it off as no different than Jesse Jackson's winning that state in both 1988 and 1992.)

'Not a Symbolic Run'

"Obama's black support was not because of anti-Hillary," Mr. Carroll said. "I think they figured finally we have someone who isn't, like Jesse Jackson, running a strictly black, token candidacy" with no realistic shot of winning.

Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama are close to even in the race for delegates to this point. The Illinois Senator is expected to surge ahead with the Feb. 12 races in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C., but for the moment, anyway, Ms. Clinton is way ahead in the polls for the three largest states with primaries still to come: Texas and Ohio on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22.

One tangible sign of Mr. Obama's strength has been his fund-raising prowess, which has dwarfed hers in recent months even as she has consistently raised more money than any of the Republican candidates. The report a day after Super Tuesday that Senator Clinton had dipped into her own pocket for $5 million to keep her campaign percolating was one sign of how formidable an opponent he has proven.

Another is that while the Illinois Senator has sometimes been criticized for not being forceful enough during some debates, he has had by far the steadier persona of the two Democrats. Ms. Clinton and her camp have moved between portraying her as the solid voice of experience on the Democratic side and lashing out at Mr. Obama like a fighter who's trailing on points and grows more desperate for a knockout punch with each passing round.

Carolina Off Their Minds

That posture was perhaps understandable in the final days before the New Hampshire primary, when many in the media were writing the opening paragraphs of her political obituary. It became more than a bit grating, however, when it continued after her comeback win there that, by re-establishing her as the favorite for her party's nomination, should have restored equilibrium to her campaign.

Instead, several of her supporters, including Bill Clinton, acted as if they'd lost whatever sense of decorum they once possessed, and Hillary seemed either unable or unwilling to hose them down. It wasn't until media criticism of those tactics reached a crescendo that the nasty putdowns of Senator Obama came to an abrupt end.

The Jan. 31 debate between the two of them in California seemed to signal a new understanding that the battle had better be civilized if either one hoped to prevail over Senator McCain, who had begun to take control of the Republican race. Both were impressive, with Mr. Obama strong and Ms. Clinton stronger, displaying a masterly command of facts to support her arguments.

The one exception came when she, once again, tried to defend her vote to authorize President Bush to invade Iraq on the grounds that the information that was available to her at the time gave her reason to believe that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction. Neither her questioners nor Senator Obama pressed her on her previous admission that she had not read the National Intelligence Estimate report at that time in October of 2002 which found that the available evidence did not "add up to a compelling case that Iraq is currently pursuing ... an integrated and comprehensive approach to acquire nuclear weapons."

A Political Calculation

It is the perception that Senator Clinton voted to authorize the invasion - as did other Democratic Senators including John Kerry and John Edwards - not based on the facts available but rather with an eye toward how a "no" vote might affect presidential ambitions that has made Mr. Obama's argument that experience is less important than good judgment resonate with some voters.

A primary reason is that experience is the easier commodity to acquire.

The New York Giants were able to win the Super Bowl after floundering early in the season because their quarterback and their defensive backs improved markedly with greater experience under pressure, while the time-tested savvy of the Patriots' defense and their offensive line could not compensate for eroding skills and physical fatigue.

Senator Clinton has argued that Mr. Obama won't hold up under the heat that the dark elements of the Republican Party will throw at him should he get the nomination. She may be more accustomed to that kind of negative campaigning, but she may also be more vulnerable to it than her rival, both because of public perceptions of her that already exist and questions about whether contributors to President Clinton's presidential library might look as suspect under scrutiny as some of Rudy Giuliani's benefactors.

During the six months until the Democratic convention in Denver, voters will have a chance to examine how the campaigns react as the time to recover from a mistake or a bad primary showing becomes shorter. Ms. Clinton is viewed as having an edge because many of the "super-delegates" who will be automatically seated at the convention without regard to primary outcomes are expected to support her.

Can Obama Keep Rising

But that is also pegged to the assumption that Mr. Obama won't continue to match the Giants' talent for outrunning expectations and raising his game to cope with changing conditions and tougher challenges. If he does, the way in which she responds - either relying on her strengths or trying to turn the contest into a mud-fight - will tell us much about how both handle pressure and whether they can prevail in November.

Mr. Hughes is certain of one thing: organized labor will be behind whichever one emerges with the nomination. Whatever traits he finds admirable about Senator McCain, he said, "His record on labor is very clear: he does vote with the Republican majority."

Everything else is up for grabs in a field that, even as it has narrowed, has left voters with more-compelling choices than in most presidential elections.