Razzle Dazzle
Hell No, He Must Be Going

By RICHARD STEIER

There are times when the irrational and illogical enter the world of politics. The most compelling recent example would be Jeanine Pirro's claim that she planned to bug her husband's boat - but never went through with it - even though she won't divorce him because of the children and would not use any evidence she uncovered of more tom-catting by Al Pirro to shake him down for an increase in her monthly allowance. Once you rule out those two motives, the notion of wiretapping makes no sense, unless Ms. Pirro really wasn't thrilled about being a viable candidate for State Attorney General.

Most of the time, however, what is going on beneath the surface in the political sphere is not counterintuitive. And so when Deputy Mayor Kevin Sheekey does everything he can to drum up support for a Mike Bloomberg for President campaign, even while his employer is repeatedly denying that the idea ever entered his mind, it evokes thoughts of a couple of other Republican pols who once called New York home.

'Watch What We Do'

One is Richard Nixon, whose first Attorney General, John Mitchell, prophetically told reporters, "Watch what we do, not what we say." The other is Nelson Rockefeller, whose 1967 declaration that he had lost his desire to be President prompted Bill Moyers to quip, "I believe Rocky when he says he's lost his ambition. I also believe he remembers where he put it." Sure enough, Mr. Rockefeller briefly challenged Mr. Nixon for the GOP nomination the following year.

NOT SO WILD AND WACKY: Mayor Bloomberg insists he has no plans of joining fellow New Yorkers Rudy Giuliani, Hillary Clinton and George Pataki in exploring a run for President in 2008, but his style and his achievements in office might make him the most attractive candidate in the bunch.

There are several reasons to dangle the possibility of a Bloomberg presidential run. It changes the perception that Mr. Bloomberg is slouching toward lame duck status, while also ensuring greater national media coverage of his press conferences dealing with matters like gun control. And if Mr. Sheekey is really acting with the Mayor's blessing, it has the effect of inserting his name into the national consciousness, the first seeding of the clouds before Mr. Bloomberg's bankroll starts making rain.

"I don't think he has national outreach at this point," veteran political consultant George Arzt said Oct. 4. "Obviously his ID is less than Rudy and Hillary, so he will have to spend a lot more dollars than them."

Communications Workers of America Local 1180 Vice President Bill Henning remarked, "I would never rule out the power of the purse, and I would imagine he could devote massive resources to [a campaign]." But he sees major obstacles for a Bloomberg run for President, starting with the fact that "on the social issues I don't think the guy gets close to the Republican Party, and on economic and labor issues he doesn't get close to the Democratic Party." That may be why Mr. Sheekey has framed the possible run in the context of an independent candidacy, but Mr. Henning and Mr. Arzt said such a move poses several logistical problems.

"It means you have to use your own resources, you've got to have your own network" of volunteers rather than counting on party professionals, Mr. Arzt noted. "And in his case, it means you would hurt the Democratic ticket, because people see him as a Democrat" despite his current party affiliation.

"I don't think he energizes people enough to rally his campaign," Mr. Henning said. "Anyone running for President has to give me a sense as to what he can do to meet the challenges this country faces, and I just don't think he's doing that enough."

The Great Equalizer

Of course, as Mr. Arzt noted, with more than two years until the 2008 election, and his personal fortune available to get out his message, Mr. Bloomberg has both the time and the money to fill in the blanks.

One potentially telling response was last week's column by the Daily News's Michael Goodwin, a longtime Giuliani booster, minimizing Mr. Bloomberg's accomplishments while noting, "Taxes are up, cops are down and many streets are filthy." He couched his attack in terms of the city needing a full-time Mayor rather than one consumed by national ambition, a concern that wasn't vocalized by Mr. Goodwin when Mr. Giuliani launched his run for Senate with nearly two years remaining in his final term as Mayor.

In fact, the strongest rationale for a Bloomberg candidacy is that he's been a better, less-divisive Mayor than Mr. Giuliani. And that creates problems for the ex-Mayor in selling himself to both Republicans throughout the country and the national media as he seeks his party's nomination.

Mr. Bloomberg's ability to continue reducing crime, and do so with fewer cops than Mr. Giuliani and without the poisonous relationship the latter gentleman created with significant segments of the black and Latino communities, raises questions about our former Mayor's leadership skills. So does the current Mayor's ability to gain control of the city school system and make improvements in the lower grades during his first term in office, in contrast to Mr. Giuliani's dismal record on education, which was marked primarily by his use of both the public school system and its Chancellors as punching bags during his eight years in office. And so it's understandable why Giuliani acolytes would not want Mr. Bloomberg on the presidential trail, opening the door to such comparisons.

For that matter, the Mayor has a stronger record of accomplishment than Ms. Clinton, for all her hard work, has been able to compile as a member of the minority party in the Senate. She bypassed her best opportunity to establish herself as a leader on tough issues when she voted four years ago to authorize President Bush to go to war with Iraq.

Mr. Arzt said of Mr. Bloomberg's possible candidacy, "Obviously, it tantalizes him. He's done this job, so it's on to other things, and a future as a philanthropist wouldn't be nearly as big a challenge as this would. He's erased the racial tensions that were prevalent under Rudy, and people feel good about New York City. That's a big thing."

The history of independent candidates running for President is not encouraging, although Mr. Bloomberg has assets they don't. Unlike Ross Perot, he has a record of achievement in government and has enough political experience to hold up under constant media scrutiny. The last serious independent candidate for President prior to Mr. Perot, John Anderson in 1980, saw his campaign, in which he positioned himself ideologically between President Carter and Ronald Reagan, fizzle out in large measure because of lack of money.

Give 'em Hell, Mike?

Just as disillusionment with Mr. Carter's record in office and uneasiness about some of Mr. Reagan's political positions created an opening for an independent then, Mr. Arzt said it was conceivable that Mr. Bloomberg could click with voters as someone free of the ideological baggage and polarizing personalities that Mr. Giuliani on the Republican side and Ms. Clinton on the Democratic end would carry into the contest. (An all-New York race would also lessen the possibility of Mr. Bloomberg being hurt by any national bias against the city that may linger even after 9/11.)

"If people are sick of the nominees of the two parties, he might have a real shot," Mr. Arzt said. "Obviously a John McCain would be a tough candidate to overcome. Giuliani would be a fierce competitor; Hillary would be a fierce competitor. But [Mr. Bloomberg's] style against Rudy or Hillary would be very effective. People might say he's a plain-spoken guy a la Harry Truman."

Mr. Henning wasn't thrilled by the prospect of a nonideological candidate, saying, "I would rather see more partisan bickering to stop the Republican agenda. There are some issues we ought not to get along about." Then again, the Local 1180 vice president, who is also active in the Working Families Party, is considerably to the left of the larger American electorate.

Pataki No Contender

Mr. Arzt never mentioned George Pataki in assessing Mr. Bloomberg and his local rivals, perhaps reflecting a general consensus that while the outgoing Governor has done the most to establish a candidacy for President, he has made little headway so far and hasn't achieved enough over 12 years in office to recommend him.

The emergence of Mr. Giuliani and Ms. Clinton as leading figures in their parties appears to give New York its best chance of having a local official become President since former Gov. Tom Dewey was narrowly defeated by Mr. Truman in the 1948 election. Even given the high negative ratings that are the flip side of the prominence of those two officials, the odds would figure to be prohibitive against Mr. Bloomberg emerging as the New York candidate most likely to capture the White House.

Then again, nobody took his 2001 run for Mayor to be anything more serious than a vanity project until the final days of the campaign.

"Mike Bloomberg's initial election taught me a lesson about not being dismissive of someone's political prospects," political consultant Vinny Montalbano said. He added, however, that even allowing for the advantages Mr. Bloomberg would have as a candidate over Mr. Perot, that 1992 race, at a time when there was also "a lot of disaffection with both parties," argued against the Mayor going all the way.

Moral Victory Enough?

"I don't think the man is delusional, so he's gotta know that an independent candidacy is a longshot," Mr. Montalbano said. "But you might, if you spend enough money, make statements and political points that leave you feeling it was worthwhile even if you don't win."

Mr. Bloomberg doesn't seem like a man for whom winning is secondary, however, and a run for President would start out with more plausibility than his first campaign for Mayor. He has a record to run on now, and has gained both experience as a campaigner and a higher profile. It may be amusing to note the discrepancy between Mr. Sheekey's efforts to launch the campaign and Mr. Bloomberg's public statements discouraging it, but nobody should laugh off his prospects if the Mayor acts on Mr. Sheekey's impulse.